Fundamental Attribution Error

 

Projection, based on Rejection, posed as Dimension

 

The majority of those asked chose option 2. However, the probability of two events occurring together (in “conjunction“) is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone—formally, for two events A and B this inequality could be written as {\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(A)}\Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(A) and {\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(B)}{\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(B)}.

(related: fundamental attribution error — “ the tendency for people to place an undue emphasis on internal characteristics of the agent (character or intention), rather than external factors, in explaining another person’s behavior in a given situation.”)

The Incompetent Miscalibration

the cognitive bias of illusory superiority results from an internal illusion in people of low ability and from an external misperception in people of high ability; that is, “the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.”[1]

 

 

 

CONJUNCTION FALLACY

she screamed

running out the door

like some sort of

bus riding passenger

with tourettes

yelling: The conclusion might be true, and might be thought probably true, yet it can be false.

Controversy continued, however, with Popper’s putative solution not generally accepted.[13]

 

Screen Shot 2018-04-20 at 1.12.52 AM

By now, inductive inference has been shown to exist, but is found rarely, as in programs of machine learning in Artificial Intelligence (AI).[14] 

Popper’s stance on induction is strictly falsified—enumerative induction exists—but is overwhelmingly absent from science.[14] 

Although much talked of nowadays by philosophers, abduction or IBE lacks rules of inference and the discussants provide nothing resembling such, as the process proceeds by humans’ imaginations and perhaps creativity.[14]

 

LEMON JUICE V INVISIBLE INK V MORON 

  1. method of reasoning in which the premises are viewed as supplying strong evidence for the truth of the conclusion. While the conclusion of a deductive argument is certain, the truth of the conclusion of an inductive argument may be probable, based upon the evidence given.[1]
  2. Enumerative induction or, as the basic form of inductive inference, simply induction, reasons from particular instances to all instances, thus an unrestricted generalization.[1] If one observes 100 swans, and all 100 were white, one might infer a universal categorical proposition of the form All swans are white. As this reasoning form‘s premises, even if true, do not entail the conclusion’s truth, this is a form of inductive inference.
  3. The conclusion might be true, and might be thought probably true, yet it can be false. Questions regarding the justification and form of enumerative inductions have been central in philosophy of science, as enumerative induction has a pivotal role in the traditional model of the scientific method.

How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments

 He stated: “If you’re incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent … The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is.”[6][7]

mightyisis

Although much talked of nowadays by philosophers, abduction or IBE lacks rules of inference and the discussants provide nothing resembling such, as the process proceeds by humans’ imaginations and perhaps creativity.[14]

400px-Waveforms.svg

 These predicates are unusual because their application is time-dependent;  others have argued such time-dependency depends on the language adopted, and in some languages it is equally true for natural-sounding predicates such as “green.” 
YET
they illustrate the problem of projectible predicates and ultimately, which empirical generalizations are law-like and which are not.[1][2] 

CBT_Depression_Scale2

Goodman’s construction and use of grue and bleen illustrates how philosophers use simple examples in conceptual analysis.

LAW LIKE

 

which empirical generalizations are law-like and which are not.[1][2] 

 

“Why People Fail to Recognize Their Own Incompetence”

  1. download

  2. enumerative induction is not an autonomous phenomenon, but is simply a masked consequence of inference to the best explanation (IBE).[6]

  3. Russell[edit]

    Having highlighted Hume’s problem of inductionJohn Maynard Keynes posed logical probability as its answer—but then figured not quite.[7] Bertrand Russell found Keynes’s Treatise on Probability the best examination of induction, and if read with Jean Nicod’s Le Probleme logique de l’induction as well as R B Braithwaite‘s review of it in the October 1925 issue of Mind, to provide “most of what is known about induction”, although the “subject is technical and difficult, involving a good deal of mathematics”.[8] Two decades later, Russell proposed enumerative induction as an “independent logical principle”.[9][10] Russell found,

 

weak weed

 

inference based on many observations, is a myth

THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION

“Induction, i.e. inference based on many observations, is a myth. It is neither a psychological fact, nor a fact of ordinary life, nor one of scientific procedure”.[12]Popper’s 1972 book Objective Knowledge—whose first chapter is devoted to the problem of induction—opens, “I think I have solved a major philosophical problem: the problem of induction“.[12]

Talking bout my generation

“Much like Texas, California is a state that contributes greatly to American identity by celebrating an identity that is entirely its own.”

Chapter 1

The Gold Rush

Beyond the ursine sentry is a waiting room

I can’t get past the sentry. Yet. But time is definitely on my side. You know why? No one has the fortitude of a gen-x-er, forced to survive in a sea of hippie changeling elites who consumed all the natural resources and were the last beneficiary of that quaint yet interminable construct, the American “dream.”

Then, came the avocado-toast, podshare, blockchain millennials who were the only ones who could save the world now, with their self-driving, space-seeking, factory-sleeping guru with an eight letter name.

Blatant profiting off the masses was out, sharing the wealth (so long as it fits the Warren Buffet standard, I guess) by sticking it to the man, also out. No Robinhoods here. “No one wants the homeless in their neighborhood,” he reported as the takeaway from the news story.

The story was about how RVs, which are seeing a boon in sales they say due to “baby boomers & millennials” (what a market to claim! Most of the worlds population (aka consumption of natural resources) is comprised of these fucks. They have the numbers, and much like zombie infestation, the numbers gain ground, with mind-numbing assurance. The story was about how families living in RVs after being unable to afford Southern California sky-rocketing rent, were being banned from parking – everywhere.

Put ’em in Beverly Hills.

Think, if you will, of the little tribe of sentient beings lead by a stoic and expedient Rick in The Walking Dead as Gen-X. They are responsible for the undoing of moral turpitude, the dissension among the ranks, filtering the messages and ensuring the human race survives. The behind the scenes guy. The fixer. The puppetmaster. The captain of the ship.

Chapter 2

The Godfather

The first latch key kids, Gen-X -ers learned to be self-sufficient. You can thank them for keeping netflix alive long enough to take over your entertainment modis operandi or mo·dus op·e·ran·di if you prefer.

They were also expressly formed in a cultural synthesis that only existed until the beginning of mass suicides where everyone died a little inside the day we heard Kurt Cobain killed himself.

The Godfather, The Shining, Jaws, Star Wars, Pulp Fiction – these were our movies.

For the generation whose first presidential experience was hearing their betrayed father snarl tricky Dicky * at the television set to come of age during the age of astrology policy, trickle down theory and *Material Girl served a side of cynicism with that beloved sicky sweet apple pie. We got screwed.

We made up for it. Fighting our parents who wondered why we were struggling, as the post-WW2 mindset was still going strong in the chaos of the 70s excess, followed by greed, ruthlessness & furtive expansiveness of the 80s (the world was open then, briefly, or so it seemed). That whiplash of values (uh, hippies to Gordon Gecko?) bled into the confusion that was the 90s. Heroin chic was actually a thing? How does that happen? After Gia had died of AIDS? The best music dripped with the agile pain-killing effects, while speaking of truths only certain of us could abide.

Chapter 3

The fallacy of The Dream

Why aren’t you doing better?

Major stock indices plunge

The next crash”

The crack epidemic”

War on poverty”

Nobody wins

Chapter 4

The Greatest Generation

Our manic depressive grand-fathers, who invented more inventions than you could shake a stick at, but forgot to patent them. Luckily, some he did and the genius inventor parameter was kept alive. In the spirit of that, I am kept alive.

That lead to two doctors and their understanding of the world was how we kill ourselves. Or how we continue our race, the human race, not the ideological, skin-color-identifying parameter race, despite almost blowing it on a regular basis.

Chapter 5

The Writer

I need to read this aloud for you to really “get” the meaning imbued through cadence, the flow of ideas as expressed metaphorically, with familiarity so the language moves us forward to consider other ways of seeing this world we share. Or at least, I think we share, but this all could just be a lonely hologram in the multiverse where “reality” doesn’t really exist-because reality is nothing more than shared perception. The state of things. Get real, Jody. That’s reality *they say when you hit your first road bump. A kind of *fuck you too welcome to life, kid implication best circumvented by the term “reality show.”

Unlike a puppet show or a talent show, a reality show’s gonna hurt. That’s life, kid.

Citations in beginning:

Newsweek

She was looking to the sky

  1. Everything generates an electromagnetic field. The natural earth creates one, and so does the human body. You create an EMF of about 10 hertz.
  2. A hertz is equal to one cycle per second
  3. Heinrich Rudolf Hertz proved the existence of electromagnetic waves
  4. Sine waves describe smooth periodic oscillating
  5. Humans perceive frequency of sound waves as pitch.
  6. A heartbeat is a non-sinusoudal periodic phenomenon
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